Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, leader of the Green Party of Iran and former senior IRGC commander joins the Trialogue from Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear question, relations with Russia and China, and the prospects for a negotiated settlement with the Trump administration. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.
Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, leader of the Green Party of Iran and former senior IRGC commander joins the Trialogue from Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear question, relations with Russia and China, and the prospects for a negotiated settlement with the Trump administration.
Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!
*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.
(Transcripts may contain a few typographical errors due to audio quality during the podcast recording.)
[00:00:00] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Saudi Arabia, at this time, they have a bomb. They have a nuclear bomb, but keep this nuclear bomb inside Pakistan, not in Saudi Arabia. And maybe we have some bombs kept in Korea, in China, in Russia.
[00:00:16] Peter Slezkine: That is an interesting workaround. So, you're saying that Russia, China, North Korea might, sort of, host an Iranian bomb on their soil that Iran and the host country control jointly?
[00:00:30] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yeah, that's right.
[00:00:36] Peter Slezkine: I'm Peter Slezkine, Director of the U.S.-Russia-China Trialogue Project at the Stimson Center. Since the middle of the 20th century, relations among the United States, Russia, and China have had an enormous impact on each country separately and on the world as a whole. The purpose of The Trialogue is to better understand this extraordinarily complex and consequential relationship by directly engaging with experts from all three countries.
In this show, guests from across the political spectrum and from every corner of the globe share their views in their own voice. While the Stimson Center seeks to provide access to a wide variety of perspectives, it does not endorse any particular position. We leave it to the listeners to judge the validity and value of the views expressed by the guests.
My guest today is Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, Secretary General of the Green Party of Iran and former senior IRGC commander. We recorded our conversation on Thursday, May 7th. I was in Washington, D.C., Hossein Kanani Moghaddam was in Tehran.
Well, thank you so much for joining the show.
[00:01:45] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Thank you very much.
[00:01:47] Peter Slezkine: Could we begin with a brief biography? Where were you born and in what year?
[00:01:54] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: I was born in Iran, the city of Hamadan, the west of Iran, in 1959. At this time, living in Tehran, in Iran. At this time, I'm the leader of the Green Party in Iran. And during the war between Iran and Iraq in IRGC, former commander of IRGC.
[00:02:18] Peter Slezkine: So, you were 20 years old during the revolution. What were you doing-
[00:02:23] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes.
[00:02:23] Peter Slezkine: ... at the time? What role, if any, did you play?
[00:02:26] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: On that time, I was a student in the university, and we have a lot of activities about the anti-Pahlavi and Shah. And a member of the one group supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Religion, joined to the IRGC for war against the Iraq regime. And we have a lot of trip to Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, and other places for the help to resistance Islamic group in this area.
[00:03:04] Peter Slezkine: So, that is once you were already part of the IRGC, you had fought in the war with Iraq, and then you also took a tour of the region as part of your IRGC responsibilities.
But again, to return to 1979, you were a student. You opposed the Shah's regime. Were you driven mostly by religious sentiment or by a sort of anti-colonial, anti-Western, anti-Zionist framework?
[00:03:35] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, we have a lot of purpose for fighting against the Shah. One of them is for the freedom of the people of Iran, and another one is anti-United States, for they try to keep Iran like a colony of the United States. And we have some activities against international Zionism. I'm not anti-Jewish, I'm anti-Zionism because of the difference between the religion of the Jewish and Zionism in this area. And the help to the resistance Islamic group in Iraq and other places.
[00:04:13] Peter Slezkine: What is the Islamic Republic, as far as you are concerned now? And what did you envision at the early stages when you were a student and the revolution was unfolding, and then you joined the IRGC?
[00:04:29] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: During the study in the university before the revolution, the SAVAK is a security part of the Shah regime, and they captured me, and I was in jail. And on that time, I understand the Shah regime followed the policy of the United States, and the United States occupied Iran by Shah. And we tried to free my country, fighting against the Shah, and after that, fighting against the United States' policy in Iran.
[00:05:02] Peter Slezkine: You are an engineer by training, right?
[00:05:05] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, that's right. I'm a civil engineer. I am studying engineering in Iran and in London, nearly five years, in United Kingdom.
[00:05:15] Peter Slezkine: So, when were you in the United Kingdom?
[00:05:18] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: 30 years ago, 1975. I was in South Bank University in London.
[00:05:25] Peter Slezkine: You mentioned being anti-Zionist, not anti-Jewish. In your resume, it says that you have been head of the International Anti-Zionist Association. What is that association, and what does that mean?
[00:05:42] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Nearly 40 years ago, we established this association for the Zionism. It’s different from the Jewish. Zionism is a party in the world, and they try to establish Israel like a proxy country for the United States.
And at that time, we tried to situate the activities of the Green Party and association's anti-Zionism, as different activities of the anti-Jewish. That's a name that's antisemitist. We are not antisemitist. And we try to say to other Muslim in the Middle East to say that the Jewish is different from Zionism, and we have to fight against the order of an idea of the supreme leader on that time, Ruhollah Khomeini. Israel is the biggest threat against the Muslim in the future, and we try to fight against them, surrounded by the resistance Islamic group.
[00:06:55] Peter Slezkine: So, you make a distinction between Jewishness as a religion and an ethnicity and Zionism as an ideology. Is there a distinction between Zionism and the Israeli state? Is there, for Iran, can the Israeli state exist legitimately if it adopts an ideology that is not Zionism?
[00:07:17] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yeah. The Israel occupied the land of the Muslim in Palestine, in Lebanon, in Syria, and other holy land of the Islam. And the Jewish is different. It's a religion. I believe, if I cannot believe Musa and the religion of the Jewish, and if I cannot believe Jesus, the Christian religion, I cannot say I am a Muslim. To condition before they believe Islam is to believe the Jewish and the Christian. But Zionism is an ideology for gathering the other people from all the world to establish a country like Israel, like a military group to occupied other land in this area and the land of the Muslim.
[00:08:17] Peter Slezkine: You are also head of the Green Party, as you mentioned. What is the Green Party? When was it founded? What is its political purpose?
[00:08:27] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes. 35 years ago, we established this party in Iran, that's the Green Party, and the main activity is the environment, keep the environment and human rights and fight against any threat against Iran by the other countries like the USA or Israel.
[00:08:49] Peter Slezkine: How successful has the party been?
[00:08:52] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: If you search on Google, you can find the activities of the Green Party. We have many activities during the election for the prime minister, for the election for the parliament, for the other elections in Iran. And at this time, I'm a member of the House of Parties in Iran, and we have a high level of responsibility in parties house in Iran.
[00:09:21] Peter Slezkine: So, the structure of the Iranian state is, I suppose, opaque to many outside of it. What, if anything, has changed since the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran? Much of the leadership, of course, has been killed. So, who is in charge now? What are the various centers of power in Tehran as we speak today?
[00:09:45] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: After the attack, the United States and Israel to Iran, they have a lot of aims for that. One of them is regime change. They try to kill the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei before, and then the headquarter of the army and IRGC, and commander of that to regime change. But they don't do that.
And another aim is a coup d'état inside Iran. And they try to separate some part of Iran by the fighter of the Kurd or other nation from the neighborhood, and they cannot do that. And another aim is control of the energy in the Strait of Hormuz.
And Trump tried to surround it and blockade and keep the army and navy inside the Persian Gulf for that. This time, the Strait of Hormuz under control of the IRGC and Iran. They have a big mistake about that, and the calculation is not correct.
And fourth of that, I think, they try to gather other countries’ alliances and, for example, NATO and Arab countries, to surround Iran and share with the United States against Iran. But they don't do that. NATO does not follow the policy of the United States against Iran and China and Russia as well, and other Arab countries south of the Persian Gulf. They cannot accept going to war against Iran.
And the United States, they try to keep the military bases in the Persian Gulf, but during the war, we attack most of that, nearly 27 bases of the United States, destroyed by the missiles and the drone and attack from the IRGC and the army. And they try, at this time, to start negotiation and deal with Iran. And they have some conditions for the nuclear power and the activities of the defense, like the missiles and the drone.
But as you look at the news, at this time, Iran is staying in the Strait of Hormuz and is in control of that. And Israel and the United States, I think they will try to attack again Iran, maybe in the Persian Gulf, and attack some ports and island in the very limited, not very long-term activities and operations against Iran.
And the scenario of, I think, the United State, they try to join Pakistan to occupy again the Afghanistan and Bagram, and staying in the land because they cannot stay in the water in Oman Sea and Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf. And staying in the land in Pakistan, they try to collapse the Taliban government. And for the future, they use this land against Iran east of the border of Iran.
[00:13:02] Peter Slezkine: So, you think Trump's interest in Bagram and Afghanistan and Pakistan is an attempt to encircle Iran now from the east? But let's get back to the functioning of the Iranian state. So, you say that the U.S. and Israel sought to destroy the Iranian state. If that was an objective, it obviously has not succeeded. Iran has shown that it can inflict pain on the U.S. and its partners and the global economy. But Trump often says that regime change has succeeded because the old leaders are no longer alive. So, of course, Reza Pahlavi's son is not in Tehran, so regime change in the old American definition has not happened. But Trump has redefined the term. So, if there is a new generation of leaders in Tehran, who are they? What role does the IRGC play? Who is in power? Who has a mandate to talk to the United States or anyone else?
[00:14:12] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: If you look at the strategy of Trump, according to Brzezinski strategy for the madman, the president of the United States must be a madman. He has a lot of fake news, and regime change collapsed the government, not change the leader. At this time, the son of the last supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is younger and he is a supreme leader at this time, according the law of Iran. This is not regime change.
And this supreme leader, I know very well about the character and the background for the managing of the military activities and the policy and the economy as well. And he, at this time, controls everything and heads the IRGC, and the parliament and the president, Pezeshkian. And we have in the news today, they have a meeting with the supreme leader, more than two hours. And they say he's very strong, he's very likely and the other organization, army and IRGC and everything is working. We have a normal situation after the war, nearly 40 days. And if you look at the street and in the square in Tehran and other cities of Iran, the people are staying and demonstrating support for the supreme leader and government to continue the war against any threat from the United States and Israel. I think the propaganda of Trump against Iran and fake news, they exported to Iran for the control of the mind of the population in Iran.
[00:16:01] Peter Slezkine: But granted that the regime is still in place, it has of course changed. As you say, there is a new supreme leader who is the son of the old supreme leader. During times of war, the role of the military, of the IRGC, must have changed. So, when the people come out to the square, who do they believe is representing them? Do they believe that the model has remained unchanged, or that Iran has come out of this war, the state, the Islamic Republic, transformed in some fashion?
[00:16:35] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: You know, the model of the government for Iran is not like the liberal democracy, the nation state, government and leader. Iran, the model is the Islamic model. That's the Ummah and Imam. Imam is the supreme leader. And Ummah is the people in the street and in the other organizations.
I think this model can continue with any attack from the United State or Israel because the people support this government. You know the good government and good governance. Good government is the people is at top of the organization of the government. And the good governance is the behavior of the government to solve the problem of the people, economy and culture and other things. And they can defend Iran against any threat. I think at this time, everything is normal situation, but we have some problem and sensitive situation. But we can solve this, and we are staying very strong against any attack and conflict against Iran.
[00:17:51] Peter Slezkine: When the people come out into the square to support Iran during a time of war, missiles are falling, what is the motivating factor for them, if you had to compare the religious impulse, Shia Islam, Iran as the Islamic Republic, or Iran as an ancient civilization, the idea of Persia, that some great state has existed in this part of the world for many, many centuries?
Are these ideas combined? In what way are they related? What do people emphasize now?
[00:18:35] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: If after the Islamic revolution, we combine the ideology of Islam and nationality in Iran, and at this time both of them combined and joined together and are working very good for the continuation of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
And I think the United States tried to separate this and divided these two of them. For example, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah, they try to, "Okay, I am the nationality," and the Kourosh Kabir, and like that they say to the Iranian people. But the Iranian people, they don't accept that because they are staying for supporting Iran and Islam ideology.
I think Iran at this time uses both of them and combines the ideology of Islam and Shia and uses the nation and nationality. And if you look at the resistance group in this area, we supported the Sunni group, for example, the Hamas and the other Palestinian group that is not Shia, but we supported them. And this is not just only Shia, we follow the Islam, Holy Prophet Muhammad Rasulullah and the Holy Quran, the book of Islam. And I think the Ummah is gathering all the Muslims in this area together for staying against the United States and Israel.
[00:20:18] Peter Slezkine: So, what is your vision of regional stability at some point in the future? Would that require a total transformation or elimination of the Israeli state and the withdrawal, at least militarily, of the United States completely? Or is there some equilibrium that could be found in the near future with America still present and Israel politically still similar to what it is now?
[00:20:46] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: And we have two problems with Israel. One of them is they try to establish a big Israel and occupy the other land of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other places.
We are standing against this plan for occupying other land. And the United States supported them for this policy. And the second problem with Israel is they are a terrorist country. If they continue to use the terrorism activities against the other countries like Iran and attack some leader of Iran, we cannot just stand and look at that, "Okay, continue."
We attack against all the bases, for example, Tel Aviv, Haifa, and destroyed all of that. This is a red line for Iran. But Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, they have a plan for the referendum in Israel in the future. This is democratic plan. They told, "Okay, all the Palestinian, Jewish, and Muslim, and Arab, and Christian, all of them gathering and they choose one government according the election." We accepted that, okay, they try to have a new government for all the Palestinian. We can follow this plan of Ayatollah Khamenei. But I think Israel, the proxy of the United States, they use just gun and aircraft against the Muslim. They don’t have any resolution to solve this problem.
[00:22:34] Peter Slezkine: You just said that Israel was a proxy of the United States. Over the last year, who do you think has been the driving force, Israel or the U.S. in determining when and how to attack Iran?
[00:22:49] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: You know, 1% of the rich men in the United States, all of the economy of the United States occupied by 1%, that's all of that is the Jewish. They have a lobby inside the United States. There’s a lobby of AIPAC. And they have control of the Congress and president of the United States because they paid the money for the election inside the United States.
I think Netanyahu, they have many information against Trump. That information, the file of Epstein. And they tried to capture Trump to follow the policy of Israel and the AIPAC lobby for push in United States to go to the fight against Iran. I know about some leadership and some army and some members of Congress, they don't like to go to war. The big idea for MAGA is the war is finished, and we are going to peace. Trump used these sentences to take more votes from the people inside the United States.
But the lobby of Zionism in Israel and Netanyahu, they try to push more Trump to, "Okay, no resolution, just only fighting against Iran directly." 47 years ago, we have a lot of sanction, embargo, blockade, coup d'état, fighting indirect and direct with the United States, United States supporting Iraq during the eight years war between Iran and Iraq. And they supported [inaudible 00:24:59] and other court opposition and sent guns to the Kurdish group. As you know, they say in the interview, "Yes, I sent many guns to the Kurdish, but they sell to the other group." I think the behavior of the United States under control of the policy of Zionism, not just only Netanyahu, but the international Zionism.
[00:25:05] Peter Slezkine: So, you think Israel and the Israel lobby in the United States has influenced the U.S. to attack Iran?
[00:25:13] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes.
[00:25:13] Peter Slezkine: And you believe that this has been done through campaign donations, and even perhaps the threat of blackmail through-
[00:25:24] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes.
[00:25:24] Peter Slezkine: ... Epstein connections? So, you mentioned that if Israel were to attack the Iranian leadership again, that's a red line, and Iran would respond by sending missiles to Tel Aviv and elsewhere. So, Iran has done this now, has responded forcefully, has hit Israel, has hit Gulf countries, has closed the Strait of Hormuz. Do you believe that this demonstration of force creates sufficient deterrence going forward?
[00:25:59] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: During the war 40 days ago, we have a new experience about how we can destroy Israel, not just the base of the United States south of the Persian Gulf, because we try to take a hard revenge against Israel because they killed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. And if they try to attack against the new supreme leader, in this time we use all of the capability and capacity of the army and IRGC and in air force and navy and the missiles and drone against the Tel Aviv and Haifa directly, and concentration on that places.
And I think Israel know about that. We have a lot of capability and new range of the missiles in the head of each one, maybe 2,000 kilogram explosion, and 10 of that like the one tactic, atomic bomb. But Israel cannot attack against Iran alone. They try to make the United States follow them, and the United States attack directly against Iran.
But I think, to Trump, they have experience, new experience about, if they want to come, like, during the war, 40 days ago, this is a trap against the United States. If you look at the operation for the freedom of the Strait of the Hormuz by navy and they try to maneuver in the Persian Gulf. After two missiles, after the attack of the IRGC against them, they say, "Okay, cancel now this operation." Every time they say nonsense, and, like a joke, policy joke, in the operation. I think the Congress and the army of the United States, they don't like to follow this policy of Trump to attack against Iran.
[00:28:05] Peter Slezkine: But do you believe that Iran has already shown enough that the U.S. will think twice before launching a third attack? Or is there a danger that Iran has already played all of its cards, to use Trump's favorite analogy, that you've hit not only Israel, but Gulf countries, you closed the Strait of Hormuz, and that there is little possibility to go further up the escalatory ladder?
[00:28:38] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: I think the United States will try to more push against Iran in international law and from the Security Council in the United Nations. They want to establish a new statement against Iran, and Iran accepted, like the war between Iran and Iraq, and the statement issued by the Security Council in the United Nations, about the, "Okay, ceasefire, and both countries must stop the war."
Maybe this is one of the plans of Trump. They try to use the policy from China and from Russia, England, Japan, and other countries to push against Iran by issuing a new statement against Iran. But another choice that Trump, maybe they try limited attack against some port and the island and say, "Okay, I'm the winner, and I'm out of this war."
Because this is a big trap for the navy. The estimate, my estimate, because we have a lot of experience about the military activities in the sea and the Persian Gulf, if they want to attack by marine forces and operation in the land, and at least, more than 1,000 soldiers and officers killed in this attack. And Iran is staying in this motherland, and the United States in the sea, in the water. This is not possible. They cannot any operation against Iran successfully. And Iran is not Venezuela, Iran is not Libya, Iran is not Afghanistan. Iran is Iran. And the military forces in Iran are very strong, and we are a powerful country at this time.
[00:30:40] Peter Slezkine: So, you would almost welcome an American attempt at a land invasion because you believe it is a trap for U.S. forces?
[00:30:50] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: We are welcome to the soldiers of the United States, came to the land of Iran. This is a dig of them, not the land for them.
[00:31:00] Peter Slezkine: Well, so let's say that Trump does not choose that path. He has avoided it so far. But he has threatened to continue bombing and to bomb like bombing has never been conducted before. What do you make of that threat?
[00:31:12] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: That is the propaganda. This is the propaganda of Trump. That's right. I don't believe that they want to... Maybe like a Hollywood film, they try demonstration of the war against Iran, but they know very well they cannot occupy the land of Iran and the island of Iran.
[00:31:32] Peter Slezkine: No, but what about just bombing, because he has threatened to bomb all bridges and energy infrastructure.
[00:31:39] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, maybe, they can do that for attack any structure and bases and power plants, and like that. [crosstalk 00:31:50]...
[00:31:50] Peter Slezkine: But as a civil engineer, what do you think the consequences would be? How quickly could Iran recover and rebuild if Trump were to try to blow up every bridge and energy plant?
[00:32:02] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, but we need the peace situation, and safety, and the budget and many things for the rebuild and reconstruction of all damage. But we can do. After the war between Iran and Iraq, many of the constructions and bridges and the railway and airports were destroyed by Iran. But after that, we have reconstruction better than before.
[00:32:25] Peter Slezkine: Should Iran have a bomb? Is the old fatwa still in effect? Has this attack motivated Iran to get closer to reach a bomb, or has effective deterrence in other areas made the bomb less of a priority?
[00:32:44] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: What is your meaning? I don't know. What's your meaning?
[00:32:47] Peter Slezkine: Well, I understand that it was never an official Iranian policy to pursue a bomb, but the perception by outsiders that Iran was approaching the nuclear threshold was very important, at least rhetorically. In the last years, there were deals signed to avoid Iran going past a certain point in its nuclear program. So, what is the Iranian position now? Has it changed in one direction or another as a result of the war?
[00:33:19] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: No, they all follow the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei before, and the son of the supreme leader, about the policy of the indoctrination of the defense about the use the nuclear bomb, against the other countries.
We obey all the orders of the supreme leader, and we don't like to make and use nuclear bomb against other countries. And we follow that. If you look at the policy of Iran for the activities of the nuclear activities, they’re peaceful — for the agriculture, for medicine, for street water, and the power station, and electricity, and like that. This is a red line for Iran to the enrichment of the Iranian for use the peaceful activities. But the United States tries to say all the time by propaganda Iran is going for the nuclear bomb. If we want to make this nuclear bomb, it's very easy for us because we have the science and knowledge about that, and we have the missiles to carry this head of the nuclear bomb, and we have uranium, 60% and more than that.
And we have a fuse, and the knowledge of that fuse for the combining of three of them, like a bomb. But the policy and the doctrine of the defense is not to use the bomb like that. But we have another program for the use of the umbrella against any threat of the atomic bomb against Iran.
And you know the umbrella we have to make for the defense against any threat. For example, the Israeli have a nuclear bomb, and the United States as well. But we can join, for example, China, Russia, and other countries to make an umbrella for defense against any threat of the nuclear bomb. We are following this policy, and at this time we try to make a new umbrella for the defense of Iran. But we don't like to follow up the fake news of the United States.
[00:35:34] Peter Slezkine: But you're saying that Iran is approaching China and Russia to consider the possibility of one or both of those countries extending its nuclear umbrella to cover Iran?
[00:35:48] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes. I think this is the best way for the... If you don't like to use the nuclear bomb, you have to, for defense, use the umbrella with other countries and [inaudible 00:35:59]...
[00:36:00] Peter Slezkine: And you think China or Russia might be willing to do this?
[00:36:03] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes. I think they accepted that, if Russia, and maybe South Korea as well, they came to make this umbrella at the...
[00:36:14] Peter Slezkine: You mean North Korea?
[00:36:15] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes. North Korea is one of that.
[00:36:17] Peter Slezkine: Although if Iran and Russia don't have a conventional mutual security treaty, then it's hard to imagine a nuclear agreement. But in any case, you can answer that question, but also the broader question of Iran's relations with China and Russia. How close are these partnerships? What role do Russia and China play in Iranian foreign policy, in the Iranian economy, and during this war? How much support are they providing?
[00:36:49] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes. You know we have a true agreement with Russia and China, 20 years and 25 years, during this agreement about the defense capability for cooperation and coalition about the security and the economy, and many types of activities. And Russia and China, at this time during this war supporting the Iran very well, in Security Council in the United Nations and supporting against any sanction and the embargo against Iran, that's the United States. They use the sanction and the blockade against Iran, and they do not follow the policy of the United States against Iran.
I think the new generation of the powerful countries in the world at this time, China and Russia has the biggest role for the control of this change, the new generation of the power in the world. And they try to fight against the hegemony of the United States. I think the next step, the plan of China for the One Road, One Belt to expand the economy and power and hegemony of China to the West. This is the next step of that. And I think without Iran they cannot do that. They need Iran. They need the combined power of China and Iran to fully support this plan, One Road, One Belt from China.
[00:38:30] Peter Slezkine: So, you believe Iran is essential to China because it is integral to any effort to build One Belt, One Road because of Iran's size and location in Eurasia. What about relations with Russia? There was just a high-level meeting in Moscow. The Iranian foreign minister met with Putin, which is unusual because of the break in protocol to have a foreign minister meet a president. So, what are the issues being discussed now, as far as you can tell?
[00:39:05] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Mr. Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, they have a trip to Pakistan and Moscow, and meets President Putin. President Putin’s full support, for supporting Iran against the policy of Trump in the Middle East. And I think they have some problems, Putin, about the NATO and the war between Russia and Ukraine at this time. But I think they have a main role for the future of the Middle East. They support the Iran as a friendship and neighborhood countries to stop the hegemony of the United States in this area.
[00:39:48] Peter Slezkine: And do you think Russia is doing anything in material terms to oppose American hegemony in the Middle East?
[00:39:57] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, I think they need, not material, they need Iran to stop the hegemony of the United States in the Middle East.
[00:40:07] Peter Slezkine: And so, you have discussed in the context of the nuclear umbrella, North Korea, China, Russia. In the U.S., there are many who group these countries together, Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China, as a sort of evil axis, to quote Bush, Jr. Is there something to it? Obviously, you wouldn't characterize it as evil, but do you believe that these four countries do constitute a special kind of coalition?
[00:40:35] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: I think they have a coalition at this time, and they support Iran. If Iran keeps this policy or doesn't make a nuclear bomb, they support Iran for the peaceful activities in nuclear power.
I think, at this time, some other countries, maybe Pakistan and India, would like to combine to this coalition. But I think, in the future, Iran likes the model of Pakistan. They can test the fuse of the nuclear bomb but not use it and keep the enrichment and power station and nuclear power for peaceful activities.
[00:41:23] Peter Slezkine: You said the model of... But Pakistan does have the bomb.
[00:41:26] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yes, I think they like Pakistan, but some are different. For example, Saudi Arabia at this time, they have a bomb. They have a nuclear bomb, but keep this nuclear bomb inside Pakistan, not in Saudi Arabia. And maybe we have some bombs kept in Korea, in China, in Russia.
[00:41:45] Peter Slezkine: Okay, I understand. That is an interesting workaround. So, you're saying that Russia, China, North Korea might sort of host an Iranian bomb on their soil that Iran and the host country control jointly?
[00:42:00] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yeah, that's right.
[00:42:01] Peter Slezkine: Interesting. What is the future of the Strait of Hormuz? Is there a scenario in which the U.S. and the West suspends all sanctions, pays back some frozen assets, and Iran restores free navigation, which China also probably prefers, or do you believe that Iran now is going to control the Straits from here on out?
[00:42:29] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: You know that we have a new law in the parliament of Iran for how we can control the Strait of the Hormuz and take the tariff like the Channel of Suez and Bosphorus, Panama, Malacca, and like that. In this new law, at this time the situation is a war, and we cannot use this law at this time. But it sends a message to the IRGC, a message to all the Russians and other countries, "Okay, we are ready if you want to through the Strait of Hormuz, send a message and take an acceptance for that and license."
And the United States and Israel and some colleagues of the United States fighting against Iran during this war, they cannot pass through this Strait of Hormuz. But the other countries like China, Japan, and Russia and South Korea, as well, if they take a permission, "Okay, you can pass through that." And China at this time, they do that, and it’s not a problem for Strait of Hormuz.
[00:43:45] Peter Slezkine: And China is not paying a toll, or is China paying Iran to go through the Strait?
[00:43:51] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: If they purchase the oil from Iran, they don't need to pay them money for tariff. And if they purchase the oil from the other countries in south of the Persian Gulf, they have to pay the tariff to Iran through that. Because we have to pay money for the security, keep the security and safety for the transport of the oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
[00:44:19] Peter Slezkine: In what currency are they paying?
[00:44:21] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Rial.
[00:44:22] Peter Slezkine: And do you see this as a system that will continue after this war ends, or is there something that the United States could offer in order to restore the free navigation that existed before the war?
[00:44:37] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: I don't think, after the war, the United States and the navy can through the Strait of Hormuz, only vessels that carry the goods and oil and gas. And no military forces and aircraft and warships can pass the Strait of Hormuz. The base of the United States is maybe part of that. They must be close and move all of these vessels and warships and aircrafts from bases outside the Persian Gulf. They cannot send the logistics and missiles and goods to these spaces.
[00:45:20] Peter Slezkine: As far as you are concerned, has Iran won this war or survived it?
[00:45:26] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: It's very difficult to answer this question.
[00:45:30] Peter Slezkine: Well, it's the final question, so think hard.
[00:45:33] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: I think no peace, no war is not good for Iran. We have to finalize the war. And we need a peaceful situation, not temporarily. We want to go to the peaceful situation — at least 20 years of stability for this peaceful. If the United States said, "Okay, ceasefire, war, peace," it’s not impossible to accept for Iran. We’re fighting until the United States go out from the Persian Gulf and the sea.
[00:46:10] Peter Slezkine: But so, yeah, if no, if no peace, no war is not a suitable state of affairs, can you envision a durable settlement that Iran will agree to with these particular interlocutors, with Trump, with Witkoff, with Kushner, with Vance? Is there a durable settlement that can be reached with the United States and can produce stability across the Gulf?
[00:46:38] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: If they want to stay in the Persian Gulf and blockade Iran, there is not any table for the negotiation and deal.
[00:46:46] Peter Slezkine: But if the U.S. removes the blockade, offers a compromise...
[00:46:52] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Yeah, it's maybe open the window, not door of the negotiation. Maybe open some windows with the United States.
[00:47:00] Peter Slezkine: Well, the negotiations seem to be ongoing, so we will follow the proceedings and perhaps reconvene afterwards for another discussion if the situation changes. So, thank you so much for-
[00:47:14] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Thank you very much.
[00:47:14] Peter Slezkine: ... agreeing to engage in this lengthy conversation from Tehran.
[00:47:19] Hossein Kanani Moghaddam: Thank you very much. Thank you very much.
[00:47:24] Peter Slezkine: Thanks for listening to The Trialogue Podcast. Make sure to subscribe to the show so you don't miss out on any episodes. The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.